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	<title>Toby Heaney | Toby Heaney</title>
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	<link>https://tobyheaney.com</link>
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	<title>Toby Heaney | Toby Heaney</title>
	<link>https://tobyheaney.com</link>
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	<item>
		<title>Job Market Paper</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/job-market-paper/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/job-market-paper/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Sep 2025 23:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobyheaney.com/?p=1547</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Attached is my job market paper. It is in the final stages before attempting to submit for publishing.]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Attached is my job market paper. It is in the final stages before attempting to submit for publishing.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Google Trends paper submitted for publication</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/google-trends-paper-submitted-for-publication/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/google-trends-paper-submitted-for-publication/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2025 13:49:35 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobyheaney.com/?p=1530</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This study examines the relationship between Google Trends search
activity for the terms SUV and Truck and future unemployment rates, using
them as a test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis. The findings reveal
a strong correlation between these search terms and subsequent state-level
unemployment rates, suggesting that consumer search behavior reflects
expectations about future economic conditions. Our results indicate that
Google Trends data can serve as an implicit predictor of unemployment,
offering a novel, real-time approach to labor market forecasting.
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am currently working to publish this paper. It has been submitted, and I&#8217;m waiting for a response. Feel free to email me your thoughts.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<item>
		<title>The Times West Virginian Covers the Predatory Claims Act</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/the-times-west-virginian-covers-the-predatory-claims-act/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/the-times-west-virginian-covers-the-predatory-claims-act/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Dec 2023 22:30:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predatory Claims Act]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobyheaney.com/?p=1471</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m pleased to inform you that our ongoing efforts to address the issue of predatory practices targeting veterans have gained significant attention. A Times West Virginian article sheds light on the plight of veterans who fall victim to unscrupulous individuals, including lawyers, exploiting their vulnerabilities. The article highlights distressing examples where veterans have been exploited, [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m pleased to inform you that our ongoing efforts to address the issue of predatory practices targeting veterans have gained significant attention. A <a href="https://www.timeswv.com/news/local_news/vfw-working-to-address-claim-sharks-who-take-advantage-of-veterans/article_1d8a8418-9946-11ee-84b9-eb8b3646c143.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Times West Virginian article</a> sheds light on the plight of veterans who fall victim to unscrupulous individuals, including lawyers, exploiting their vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>The article highlights distressing examples where veterans have been exploited, despite successfully obtaining their entitled benefits. It underscores the urgency of our mission to curb these predatory practices and protect our veterans from financial exploitation.</p>
<p>I am grateful for the opportunity to raise awareness of this critical issue and to work towards implementing measures to safeguard the rights and well-being of our veterans.</p>
<p>Thank you for your continued support.</p>
<p>Sincerely,<br />
Toby Heaney Jr.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Introducing the Predatory Claims Act</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/introducing-the-predatory-claims-act/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/introducing-the-predatory-claims-act/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Dec 2023 02:00:57 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predatory Claims Act]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://tobyheaney.com/?p=1476</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This bill, introduced in the West Virginia Senate, targets protecting veterans seeking assistance with their benefits. It aims to prevent individuals or organizations from charging veterans for help unless permitted by federal law. Need for the Bill: Potential for Misleading Practices: Veterans navigating the complexities of benefit claims might be vulnerable to misleading services. Free [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-sourcepos="5:1-5:231">This bill, introduced in the West Virginia Senate, targets protecting veterans seeking assistance with their benefits. It aims to prevent individuals or organizations from charging veterans for help unless permitted by federal law.</p>
<p data-sourcepos="7:1-7:22"><strong>Need for the Bill:</strong></p>
<ul data-sourcepos="9:1-12:0">
<li data-sourcepos="9:1-9:141"><strong>Potential for Misleading Practices:</strong> Veterans navigating the complexities of benefit claims might be vulnerable to misleading services.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="10:1-10:179"><strong>Free Resources Available:</strong> Government agencies like the Department of Veterans Affairs and local service organizations often provide free assistance with veterans&#8217; benefits.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="11:1-12:0"><strong>Unreasonable Fees and False Promises:</strong> Some individuals or organizations might charge excessive fees or make false guarantees about securing specific benefits.</li>
</ul>
<p data-sourcepos="13:1-13:44">This bill aims to address these concerns by:</p>
<ul data-sourcepos="15:1-18:0">
<li data-sourcepos="15:1-15:138"><strong>Ensuring Transparency:</strong> It mandates clear disclosures from those offering paid services, informing veterans about free alternatives.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="16:1-16:164"><strong>Curbing Unfair Practices:</strong> It prohibits charging for services before a certain stage in the claim process and prevents guarantees of specific benefit outcomes.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="17:1-18:0"><strong>Protecting from Excessive Fees:</strong> The bill aims to stop unreasonable charges by referencing established guidelines for fees in veteran benefit claims.</li>
</ul>
<p data-sourcepos="19:1-19:231">In essence, the bill seeks to create a safer environment for veterans seeking help with their benefits by promoting transparency, preventing misleading practices, and ensuring veterans are aware of free resources available to them.</p>
<p data-sourcepos="1:1-1:116">Here&#8217;s a simplified breakdown:</p>
<ul data-sourcepos="3:1-6:0">
<li data-sourcepos="3:1-3:158"><strong>Generally prohibits charging veterans for help with benefits:</strong> People cannot get paid to assist veterans with their claims unless federal law allows it.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="4:1-4:174"><strong>Requires clear disclosures:</strong> Those offering paid help must clearly state they are not affiliated with the government and inform veterans about free resources available.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="5:1-6:0"><strong>Protects veterans from unreasonable fees and false promises:</strong> It prevents people from charging excessive amounts or guaranteeing specific benefits.</li>
</ul>
<p data-sourcepos="7:1-7:119">Overall, the bill aims to ensure veterans get accurate help with their claims and are not misled or taken advantage of.</p>
<p data-sourcepos="1:1-1:107">Lawyers would likely still be able to provide help to veterans under this bill with some restrictions:</p>
<ul data-sourcepos="3:1-6:0">
<li data-sourcepos="3:1-3:166"><strong>Lawyers are exempt from the general ban:</strong> The law specifies &#8220;except as permitted under federal law&#8221; and lawyers offering legal services fall under that category.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="4:1-4:266"><strong>Disclosures and fee regulations apply:</strong> Lawyers would need to adhere to the disclosure requirements mandated by the bill. This means clearly informing veterans that they are not affiliated with the government and highlighting the availability of free resources.</li>
<li data-sourcepos="5:1-6:0"><strong>Unreasonable fees and false promises are prohibited:</strong> Lawyers cannot charge excessive fees or guarantee specific benefits. They must abide by existing ethical guidelines and fee regulations.</li>
</ul>
<p data-sourcepos="7:1-7:222">Therefore, veterans can still seek legal help for their claims. However, this bill aims to ensure transparency and prevent misleading practices by requiring disclosures and prohibiting unreasonable fees and false promises.</p>
<p data-sourcepos="7:1-7:222"><a href="https://tobyheaney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Predatory-Claims-Act-for-Veterans-Page.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Download</a> the bill</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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			</item>
		<item>
		<title>Google Trends and State Level Unemployment</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/google-trends-and-state-level-unemployment/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/google-trends-and-state-level-unemployment/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Mar 2023 12:00:40 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[google trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[permanent income hypothesis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://staging.wsipowered.com/TobyHeaney/?p=1075</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Abstract This study employs a predictive lead regression model to optimize the selection of Google Trends search outcomes, enhancing the accuracy of Unemployment predictions at the state level. The investigation centers on evaluating the correlation between Google Trends searches utilizing terms aligned with the Permanent Income Hypothesis and their capacity to forecast alterations in the [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><strong>Abstract</strong></h3>
<p>This study employs a predictive lead regression model to optimize the selection of Google Trends search outcomes, enhancing the accuracy of Unemployment predictions at the state level. The investigation centers on evaluating the correlation between Google Trends searches utilizing terms aligned with the Permanent Income Hypothesis and their capacity to forecast alterations in the Unemployment rates of various US states. Our empirical scrutiny integrates Google Trends data and state-level Unemployment records spanning a decade. Notably, our findings indicate that searches related to motor vehicles contribute significantly to the enhancement of Unemployment rate predictions for a state, offering improved foresight up to 12 months in advance, surpassing the predictive capacity of searches solely based on Unemployment-related terms. Moreover, broadening the geographical scope of Google Trends searches demonstrates the potential for further refining predictive outcomes in specific states. This empirical evidence underscores the efficacy of incorporating theoretically grounded multiple search terms within a broader context, thus advancing the utility of Google Trends for more accurate and resilient predictive results, transcending the limitations of narrowly focused topic-specific search terms. The Permanent Income Hypothesis plays a crucial role in this framework, further validating the importance of integrating economic theories with innovative data sources like Google Trends to predict Unemployment more effectively.</p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Unemployment, Google Trends, Permanent Income Hypothesis</p>
<p><strong>Purpose:</strong> This paper is designed to find a better fit for a predictive model of unemployment. Predicting unemployment using Google Search trends for the word unemployment has been done before and has some success. However, an external event, like a national discussion on unemployment, can skew these results causing the predictive model to fail. By adding other words that are related to unemployment we can improve the model and reduce failures.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>IS THE VA PROPERLY SERVING THE VETERANS OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION?</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/is-the-va-properly-serving-the-veterans-of-the-appalachian-region/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/is-the-va-properly-serving-the-veterans-of-the-appalachian-region/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2022 12:01:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appalachia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hospital usage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[veterans affairs]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://staging.wsipowered.com/TobyHeaney/?p=1078</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Abstract In this paper we use a simple Differences in Differences method to compare Veterans Administration (VA) hospital outpatient usage between the Appalachian Region and the rest of the United States. This will be done using data before the community care started growing and after the temporary law was implemented in 2014. What we show [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Abstract</h3>
<p style="text-align: left;">In this paper we use a simple Differences in Differences method to compare Veterans Administration (VA) hospital outpatient usage between the Appalachian Region and the rest of the United States. This will be done using data before the community care started growing and after the temporary law was implemented in 2014. What we show is that the rest of the country slowed its growth in dependence on the VA after the passing of the law. While the Appalachian region continued to rely on the VA for the majority of its usage. Showing that the Appalachian region is being under served by community care, possibly due to a lack of alternatives. Our findings however, are not statistically significant.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Keywords: Appalachia, Veterans Affairs, Hospital Usage</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">Purpose: This paper was started to determine the effective usage of the Veterans Affairs Hospitals and whether or not they are serving veterans of the Appalachian region.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Veterans Migration Trends, 2010 to 2019</title>
		<link>https://tobyheaney.com/veterans-migration-trends-2010-to-2019/</link>
					<comments>https://tobyheaney.com/veterans-migration-trends-2010-to-2019/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Toby Heaney]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2022 12:00:20 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Research]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[migration trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[veterans]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://staging.wsipowered.com/TobyHeaney/?p=1080</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Abstract In this paper, we hope to track the migration trends of veterans from year to year. We are tracking the movements among the various metro areas as defined by the American Community Survey. We end up showing that while specific cohorts are moving from more rural areas to the more urban areas across the [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Abstract</h3>
<p>In this paper, we hope to track the migration trends of veterans from year to year. We are tracking the movements among the various metro areas as defined by the American Community Survey. We end up showing that while specific cohorts are moving from more rural areas to the more urban areas across the country, the rate is very low. We also show that when taken as a whole, it is very difficult to track the movement of veterans. This is due to a lot of movement among counties within a specific metro group. For example, moving from one very rural county to another similarly rural county. Even with this movement though, it does appear that the most populated areas are losing veterans at a slightly faster pace than the lower populated areas.</p>
<p><strong>Keywords:</strong> Veterans, Migration Trends</p>
<p><strong>Purpose:</strong> The purpose of this paper is to track the migration trends of veterans. By knowing what areas veterans may be moving to we can assist policy makers in determining where best to spend their resources.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
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